Back to Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
Lightweight

Josh Thomson vs Gesias Cavalcante

Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2 ·SAP Center at San Jose
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Josh Thomson
Gesias Cavalcante
55% 45%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thomson: 16 sig / 1 TD · Cavalcante: 14 sig / 1 TD
Josh Thomson
Gesias Cavalcante
26
Sig strikes landed
23
58
Sig strikes attempted
52
46
Total strikes landed
39
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
203s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
31%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Josh Thomson

"The Punk"
23-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
—
Blue corner

Gesias Cavalcante

"JZ"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27