Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Diaz
KJ Noons
87%
13%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
27-10
Career record
Δ 12 pp
14-9
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Diaz: 130 sig / 1 TD ·
Noons: 110 sig / 0 TD
Nick Diaz
KJ Noons
72
Sig strikes landed
61
133
Sig strikes attempted
135
99
Total strikes landed
82
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
168s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nick Diaz
27-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Miami
—
Blue corner
W2
KJ Noons
"King"
14-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Houston
—
W
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—