Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Andre Galvao
Tyron Woodley
51%
49%
Why
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
6-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
20-7-1
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Galvao: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Woodley: 10 sig / 0 TD
Andre Galvao
Tyron Woodley
36
Sig strikes landed
56
92
Sig strikes attempted
96
48
Total strikes landed
62
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
6.0
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
108s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Andre Galvao
6-2
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Houston
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 7
—
Blue corner
W1
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 8
—