Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Stout
Paul Taylor
69%
31%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 4y
31
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Stout: 107 sig / 1 TD ·
Taylor: 140 sig / 0 TD
Sam Stout
Paul Taylor
56
Sig strikes landed
54
131
Sig strikes attempted
123
75
Total strikes landed
63
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
153s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
20-13-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
Paul Taylor
"Relentless"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31