Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mike Guymon
Daniel Roberts
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
16-6-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
16-7
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Guymon: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Roberts: 2 sig / 1 TD
Mike Guymon
Daniel Roberts
23
Sig strikes landed
20
53
Sig strikes attempted
50
46
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.9
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
157s
Control time
194s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mike Guymon
"The Joker"
16-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Daniel Roberts
"Ninja"
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—