Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Patrick Cote
Tom Lawlor
68%
32%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
31
Age
Δ 3y
27
23-12
Career record
Δ 7 pp
10-7
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cote: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Lawlor: 49 sig / 5 TD
Patrick Cote
Tom Lawlor
30
Sig strikes landed
30
61
Sig strikes attempted
67
48
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
123s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Patrick Cote
"The Predator"
23-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
10-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—