Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Court McGee
Ryan Jensen
67%
33%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
24-14
Career record
Δ 10 pp
22-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
McGee: 60 sig / 2 TD ·
Jensen: 36 sig / 1 TD
Court McGee
Ryan Jensen
24
Sig strikes landed
21
51
Sig strikes attempted
41
48
Total strikes landed
32
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
180s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Court McGee
"The Crusher"
24-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Jensen
22-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—