Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brendan Schaub
Gabriel Gonzaga
69%
31%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
28
Age
Δ 4y
31
11-5
Career record
Δ 10 pp
17-12
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Schaub: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Gonzaga: 37 sig / 0 TD
Brendan Schaub
Gabriel Gonzaga
30
Sig strikes landed
10
73
Sig strikes attempted
26
44
Total strikes landed
11
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
59s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
11-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
17-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—