Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tito Ortiz
Matt Hamill
61%
39%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ortiz: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Hamill: 41 sig / 3 TD
Tito Ortiz
Matt Hamill
51
Sig strikes landed
55
122
Sig strikes attempted
130
62
Total strikes landed
64
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
108s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tito Ortiz
"The People's Champ"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
W1
Matt Hamill
"The Hammer"
13-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
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