Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Diego Sanchez
Paulo Thiago
76%
24%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
31-14
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-10
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sanchez: 48 sig / 2 TD ·
Thiago: 36 sig / 1 TD
Diego Sanchez
Paulo Thiago
24
Sig strikes landed
32
65
Sig strikes attempted
76
41
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
31-14
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L1
Paulo Thiago
18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—