Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Shields
Martin Kampmann
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
32
Age
Δ 3y
28
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Shields: 25 sig / 4 TD ·
Kampmann: 35 sig / 0 TD
Jake Shields
Martin Kampmann
23
Sig strikes landed
28
58
Sig strikes attempted
69
35
Total strikes landed
50
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
57s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jake Shields
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
W2
Martin Kampmann
"The Hitman"
21-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—