🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
·Honda Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brock Lesnar
Cain Velasquez
34%
66%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
6-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
15-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lesnar: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Velasquez: 31 sig / 1 TD
Brock Lesnar
Cain Velasquez
17
Sig strikes landed
67
33
Sig strikes attempted
77
30
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.4
Takedowns attempted
-0.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
79s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
7%
KO/TKO
86%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brock Lesnar
6-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
W1
Cain Velasquez
15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—