Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Zhang Tiequan
Pablo Garza
56%
44%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tiequan: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Garza: 4 sig / 0 TD
Zhang Tiequan
Pablo Garza
33
Sig strikes landed
38
66
Sig strikes attempted
81
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
192s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Zhang Tiequan
"The Wolf"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Pablo Garza
"The Scarecrow"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27