Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Leonard Garcia
Mark Hominick
42%
58%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
19-13-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-12
W1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Garcia: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Hominick: 93 sig / 0 TD
Leonard Garcia
Mark Hominick
50
Sig strikes landed
51
150
Sig strikes attempted
132
66
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
44s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Leonard Garcia
"Bad Boy"
19-13-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 2
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
D
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W2
Mark Hominick
"The Machine"
21-12
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—
W
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—