Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Brown
Cole Province
78%
22%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brown: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Province: 0 sig / 0 TD
Mike Brown
Cole Province
26
Sig strikes landed
27
63
Sig strikes attempted
62
50
Total strikes landed
37
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
166s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Brown
26-10
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
W
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
Cole Province
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30