Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Horodecki
Ed Ratcliff
82%
18%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
23
Age
Δ 5y
28
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Horodecki: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Ratcliff: 42 sig / 0 TD
Chris Horodecki
Ed Ratcliff
49
Sig strikes landed
33
90
Sig strikes attempted
76
78
Total strikes landed
45
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
212s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Horodecki
"The Polish Hammer"
22-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—
Blue corner
Ed Ratcliff
"9mm"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28