Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Diego Nunes
Tyler Toner
59%
41%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
20-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nunes: 20 sig / 5 TD ·
Toner: 15 sig / 0 TD
Diego Nunes
Tyler Toner
34
Sig strikes landed
40
89
Sig strikes attempted
86
40
Total strikes landed
41
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
46s
Control time
266s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Diego Nunes
"The Gun"
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—
Blue corner
W1
Tyler Toner
16-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—