Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Jamie Varner
69%
31%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
36-18
Career record
Δ 5 pp
21-11-2
L1
Current streak
D1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerrone: 67 sig / 3 TD ·
Varner: 40 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Jamie Varner
37
Sig strikes landed
20
43
Sig strikes attempted
68
53
Total strikes landed
71
1.8
Takedowns landed
2.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
7.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
386s
Control time
364s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
Blue corner
D1
Jamie Varner
21-11-2
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
D
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—