Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Manvel Gamburyan
93%
7%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
24
Age
Δ 5y
29
33-10
Career record
Δ 15 pp
16-10
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Aldo: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Gamburyan: 8 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Manvel Gamburyan
37
Sig strikes landed
33
83
Sig strikes attempted
88
54
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.8
4.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
147s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
Blue corner
W1
Manvel Gamburyan
"The Anvil"
16-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—