Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Miguel Torres
Charlie Valencia
97%
3%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 12"
64"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
44-10
Career record
Δ 16 pp
13-7
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Torres: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Valencia: 12 sig / 0 TD
Miguel Torres
Charlie Valencia
39
Sig strikes landed
33
98
Sig strikes attempted
71
41
Total strikes landed
34
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
240s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Miguel Torres
44-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W1
Charlie Valencia
13-7
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—