Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Hiroyuki Takaya
Chase Beebe
36%
64%
Why
33
Age
Δ 8y
26
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Takaya: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Beebe: 6 sig / 0 TD
Hiroyuki Takaya
Chase Beebe
30
Sig strikes landed
33
81
Sig strikes attempted
71
40
Total strikes landed
42
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Hiroyuki Takaya
"Streetfight Bancho"
22-14-2
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DREAM 14
—
Blue corner
Chase Beebe
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26