Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kazushi Sakuraba
Jason Miller
30%
70%
Why
41
Age
Δ 11y
30
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sakuraba: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Miller: 14 sig / 0 TD
Kazushi Sakuraba
Jason Miller
27
Sig strikes landed
38
56
Sig strikes attempted
72
43
Total strikes landed
71
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
135s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kazushi Sakuraba
"The Gracie Hunter"
26-18-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DREAM 14
—
Blue corner
Jason Miller
"Mayhem"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30