Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Tatsuya Mizuno
97%
3%
Why
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
43-6-2
Career record
Δ 28 pp
17-12-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mousasi: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Mizuno: 4 sig / 0 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Tatsuya Mizuno
27
Sig strikes landed
23
65
Sig strikes attempted
63
34
Total strikes landed
22
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
180s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gegard Mousasi
43-6-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
W1
Tatsuya Mizuno
17-12-1
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DREAM 15
—