Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shinya Aoki
Marcus Aurelio
94%
6%
Why
27
Age
Δ 10y
37
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 2
Aoki: 17 sig / 3 TD ·
Aurelio: 3 sig / 0 TD
Shinya Aoki
Marcus Aurelio
37
Sig strikes landed
36
79
Sig strikes attempted
55
46
Total strikes landed
33
2.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
165s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Shinya Aoki
"Tobikan Judan"
40-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
Marcus Aurelio
"Maximus"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37