Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Sass
Mark Holst
75%
25%
Why
22
Age
Δ 3y
25
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sass: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Holst: 3 sig / 0 TD
Paul Sass
Mark Holst
39
Sig strikes landed
25
74
Sig strikes attempted
65
56
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
151s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Paul Sass
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner
L1
Mark Holst
"Boots"
12-7
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
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