Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rob Broughton
Vinicius Queiroz
69%
31%
Why
28
Age
Δ 0y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Broughton: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Queiroz: 47 sig / 5 TD
Rob Broughton
Vinicius Queiroz
35
Sig strikes landed
33
65
Sig strikes attempted
67
54
Total strikes landed
42
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
172s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rob Broughton
"The Bear"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Vinicius Queiroz
"Spartan"
0-0
Career record
Height
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27