Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Spencer Fisher
Curt Warburton
73%
27%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fisher: 68 sig / 1 TD ·
Warburton: 45 sig / 1 TD
Spencer Fisher
Curt Warburton
46
Sig strikes landed
42
102
Sig strikes attempted
114
62
Total strikes landed
58
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Spencer Fisher
"The King"
24-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
Curt Warburton
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox