Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James McSweeney
Fabio Maldonado
29%
71%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
McSweeney: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Maldonado: 89 sig / 0 TD
James McSweeney
Fabio Maldonado
29
Sig strikes landed
39
51
Sig strikes attempted
67
33
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
127s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
James McSweeney
"The Hammer"
15-16
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
Fabio Maldonado
"Caipira de Aco"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31