Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cyrille Diabate
Alexander Gustafsson
41%
59%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
37
Age
Δ 13y
24
20-10-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-9
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Diabate: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Gustafsson: 28 sig / 2 TD
Cyrille Diabate
Alexander Gustafsson
53
Sig strikes landed
28
77
Sig strikes attempted
140
59
Total strikes landed
24
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
328s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cyrille Diabate
"The Snake"
20-10-1
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L1
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18-9
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—