Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Wilks
Claude Patrick
29%
71%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
8-4
Career record
Δ 22 pp
15-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wilks: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Patrick: 23 sig / 3 TD
James Wilks
Claude Patrick
14
Sig strikes landed
26
31
Sig strikes attempted
51
21
Total strikes landed
54
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.4
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
52s
Control time
272s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
James Wilks
"Lightning"
8-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
W1
Claude Patrick
"The Prince"
15-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—