Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Hathaway
Mike Pyle
82%
18%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
23
Age
Δ 12y
35
18-2
Career record
Δ 25 pp
28-14-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hathaway: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Pyle: 46 sig / 5 TD
John Hathaway
Mike Pyle
51
Sig strikes landed
41
98
Sig strikes attempted
100
66
Total strikes landed
61
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
154s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Hathaway
"The Hitman"
18-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W1
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—