Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dan Hardy
Carlos Condit
36%
64%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
25-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
33-14
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hardy: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Condit: 26 sig / 0 TD
Dan Hardy
Carlos Condit
41
Sig strikes landed
44
121
Sig strikes attempted
115
54
Total strikes landed
80
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
5.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
87s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dan Hardy
"The Outlaw"
25-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W1
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
33-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—