Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Steve Lopez
Waylon Lowe
57%
43%
Why
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Lopez: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Lowe: 26 sig / 5 TD
Steve Lopez
Waylon Lowe
38
Sig strikes landed
29
70
Sig strikes attempted
54
49
Total strikes landed
48
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.8
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
113s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Steve Lopez
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
L1
Waylon Lowe
16-8
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
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