Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Tavares
Pat Audinwood
68%
32%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
24
D1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tavares: 7 sig / 2 TD ·
Audinwood: 3 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Tavares
Pat Audinwood
36
Sig strikes landed
35
71
Sig strikes attempted
77
56
Total strikes landed
49
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
172s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Thiago Tavares
21-7-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
Pat Audinwood
"Awesomely Awesome"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24