Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Grant
Julio Paulino
69%
31%
Why
27
Age
Δ 8y
35
21-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
23-6
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grant: 17 sig / 4 TD ·
Paulino: 12 sig / 0 TD
TJ Grant
Julio Paulino
38
Sig strikes landed
37
88
Sig strikes attempted
96
64
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
2.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
89s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
TJ Grant
21-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Julio Paulino
"The Dominican Demon"
23-6
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—