Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
CB Dollaway
Joe Doerksen
12%
88%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
18-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
52-16
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Dollaway: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Doerksen: 1 sig / 0 TD
CB Dollaway
Joe Doerksen
36
Sig strikes landed
34
95
Sig strikes attempted
72
46
Total strikes landed
52
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
199s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
CB Dollaway
"The Doberman"
18-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W1
Joe Doerksen
"El Dirte"
52-16
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—