Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Mitrione
Joey Beltran
67%
33%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 7"
75"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
13-5
Career record
Δ 16 pp
18-14
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mitrione: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Beltran: 52 sig / 1 TD
Matt Mitrione
Joey Beltran
55
Sig strikes landed
43
110
Sig strikes attempted
83
58
Total strikes landed
57
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
174s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Mitrione
13-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Joey Beltran
"The Mexicutioner"
18-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—