Main
Lightweight
Melvin Guillard vs Jeremy Stephens
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
·Bankers Life Fieldhouse
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Melvin Guillard
Jeremy Stephens
71%
29%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
28
Age
Δ 3y
24
33-18-2
Career record
Δ 6 pp
30-23
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Guillard: 73 sig / 0 TD ·
Stephens: 62 sig / 0 TD
Melvin Guillard
Jeremy Stephens
35
Sig strikes landed
43
121
Sig strikes attempted
100
45
Total strikes landed
47
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
73s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
33-18-2
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W1
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
30-23
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—