Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean Sherk
Evan Dunham
88%
12%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Sherk: 38 sig / 5 TD ·
Dunham: 75 sig / 0 TD
Sean Sherk
Evan Dunham
26
Sig strikes landed
28
54
Sig strikes attempted
86
42
Total strikes landed
56
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
98s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sean Sherk
"The Muscle Shark"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
Blue corner
W2
Evan Dunham
19-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—