Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Matt Serra
Chris Lytle
39%
61%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
36
Age
Δ 0y
36
12-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
32-18-5
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Serra: 124 sig / 0 TD ·
Lytle: 153 sig / 0 TD
Matt Serra
Chris Lytle
19
Sig strikes landed
31
67
Sig strikes attempted
78
24
Total strikes landed
34
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
48s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
57%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Serra
"The Terra"
12-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W2
Chris Lytle
"Lights Out"
32-18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—