Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mark Hunt
Sean McCorkle
26%
74%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 9"
81"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Hunt: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
McCorkle: 0 sig / 0 TD
Mark Hunt
Sean McCorkle
31
Sig strikes landed
47
65
Sig strikes attempted
90
48
Total strikes landed
66
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
137s
Control time
232s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
Blue corner
Sean McCorkle
0-0
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34