Main
Light Heavyweight
Rogerio Nogueira vs Ryan Bader
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
·Bankers Life Fieldhouse
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rogerio Nogueira
Ryan Bader
28%
72%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
34
Age
Δ 7y
27
24-10
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nogueira: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Bader: 42 sig / 5 TD
Rogerio Nogueira
Ryan Bader
16
Sig strikes landed
29
57
Sig strikes attempted
65
28
Total strikes landed
45
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
31s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
24-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—