Middleweight
Rich Attonito vs Rafael Natal
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares
·Frank Erwin Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rich Attonito
Rafael Natal
31%
69%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Attonito: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Natal: 28 sig / 2 TD
Rich Attonito
Rafael Natal
26
Sig strikes landed
34
65
Sig strikes attempted
72
37
Total strikes landed
49
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
172s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rich Attonito
"The Raging Bull"
11-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28