Back to UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares
Middleweight

Tomasz Drwal vs David Branch

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares ·Frank Erwin Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Tomasz Drwal
David Branch
54% 46%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
21-6-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-7
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Drwal: 10 sig / 0 TD · Branch: 15 sig / 3 TD
Tomasz Drwal
David Branch
40
Sig strikes landed
30
169
Sig strikes attempted
53
57
Total strikes landed
55
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.7
4.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
104s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Tomasz Drwal

"Gorilla"
21-6-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L1

David Branch

22-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—