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Welterweight

TJ Waldburger vs David Mitchell

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares ·Frank Erwin Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
TJ Waldburger
David Mitchell
51% 49%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
22
Age
Δ 8y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Waldburger: 37 sig / 6 TD · Mitchell: 13 sig / 2 TD
TJ Waldburger
David Mitchell
38
Sig strikes landed
38
81
Sig strikes attempted
78
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
107s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

TJ Waldburger

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner

David Mitchell

"Daudi"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31