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Efrain Escudero vs Charles Oliveira

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares ·Frank Erwin Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Efrain Escudero
Charles Oliveira
29% 71%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
25
Age
Δ 4y
21
29-12
Career record
Δ 7 pp
38-11
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Escudero: 13 sig / 0 TD · Oliveira: 35 sig / 2 TD
Efrain Escudero
Charles Oliveira
24
Sig strikes landed
42
68
Sig strikes attempted
94
39
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
193s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
15%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
72%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Efrain Escudero

"Hecho En Mexico"
29-12
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
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L UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
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Blue corner
W1

Charles Oliveira

"Do Bronxs"
38-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
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