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Nate Marquardt vs Rousimar Palhares

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares ·Frank Erwin Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Nate Marquardt
Rousimar Palhares
66% 34%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
31
Age
Δ 1y
31
35-20-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
20-8
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Marquardt: 13 sig / 0 TD · Palhares: 1 sig / 0 TD
Nate Marquardt
Rousimar Palhares
31
Sig strikes landed
41
52
Sig strikes attempted
169
43
Total strikes landed
55
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
45%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Nate Marquardt

"The Great"
35-20-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 109: Relentless
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Blue corner
W1

Rousimar Palhares

"Toquinho"
20-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
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