Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Couture
Lucas Stark
84%
16%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Couture: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Stark: 2 sig / 1 TD
Ryan Couture
Lucas Stark
43
Sig strikes landed
39
104
Sig strikes attempted
100
59
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
3.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ryan Couture
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Lucas Stark
0-0
Career record