Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Carina Damm
Hitomi Akano
35%
65%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Carina Damm
Hitomi Akano
37
Sig strikes landed
46
92
Sig strikes attempted
105
61
Total strikes landed
80
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
113s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Carina Damm
"Beauty But the Beast"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Blue corner
Hitomi Akano
"Girlfight Monster"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36