Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Riggs
Louis Taylor
90%
10%
Why
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Riggs: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Taylor: 25 sig / 2 TD
Joe Riggs
Louis Taylor
35
Sig strikes landed
32
73
Sig strikes attempted
69
41
Total strikes landed
47
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
145s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
46%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Riggs
"Diesel"
44-18
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Miami
—
Blue corner
Louis Taylor
"Handgunz"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31